April 2026 Monthly Review

A Look Back

The above title comes from the California-surfing, Hall of Fame band, The Beach Boys. It was released in 1966 and became the band’s third hit in the U.S. after I Get Around and Help Me Rhonda. Good Vibrations had a lasting impact on pop culture as it became closely associated with the youth movement of the 60s and popularized the slang term “vibes”. After a lackluster first quarter in 2026, there can be no doubt that April delivered some really good vibes in the financial markets. You don’t normally see double-digit returns when looking at monthly results, but there were several in the month. The S&P 500 was up 10.5%, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ performed even better at 15.3%. International stocks enjoyed outsized gains as well, with Emerging Markets returning nearly 15% in April. Perhaps most dramatic are the one-year returns…the S&P 500 up 31%, the NASDAQ up over 43%, Small Cap U.S. stocks up 44.4%, Emerging Markets up nearly 47%, etc. I mean, that is some serious outperformance. Commodities in general and Gold specifically have also enjoyed quite a run over the last year. Core bonds had a slight positive return in April as longer-term rates stabilized. From an economic standpoint, most indicators remained supportive of continued growth. First quarter GDP came in at positive 2.0%, much better than the .5% in fourth quarter 2025. The April inflation reports showed CPI and PPI ticking up in March. CPI rose .9% making the 12 month period up 3.3%...still stubbornly higher than the Fed’s target of 2.5% or so. Most of the increase was the result of an 11% increase in the energy index. Of course, it is impossible to review the month of April without touching on the Iran conflict that started February 28th. We saw continued warfare from all parties followed by ceasefires and talk of potential deals. Financial markets around the globe pivoted strongly from a risk-off stance to a full risk-on, as demonstrated by the returns already mentioned. One might even say the vibrations were great!

A Look Ahead

My hunch is that if you went in to hibernation on February 27th and were told of what was happening on the geo-political front over the next two months…that the price of oil increased from $65 a barrel to over $120, and still remains at over $100 currently…and that even though a ceasefire is mostly still in place, a resolution is not…most would not guess that the major stock indices here in the states and around the world were at or near all-time highs. But that is indeed where we find ourselves. I mentioned something to a colleague weeks ago, and this is certainly not a very technical thing…I said that markets seemed to have a natural bid to it. Investors willing to put their money where their mouth was were driving prices higher. Further, earnings reports from U.S. companies have been amazingly positive in aggregate. The Artificial Intelligence trade (betting on stocks associated with AI) was and is alive and well. Data Centers are being built…energy powerplants are under construction or being repurposed. The direct and ancillary jobs associated with those efforts across the country are real and meaningful. We remain concerned about the growing gap between the haves and have nots. The top 10% of American households own around 90% of all publicly traded stocks. That is not the healthiest, or most sustainable economic situation. We are trimming recent gains in client accounts, while keeping an overweight allocation to international stocks. We also reduced duration in our bond portfolios…and will continue to enjoy the good vibes for now.